Remember that all results on this page are hypothetical. Learn what this means. (Hide this warning for 24 hours.) OK. For the next 24 hours, we will only show a small "Hypothetical Results" reminder at the top of each System Page. You can always click it to show a detailed explanation about Hypothetical Results.

Silver Alpha

Created by:
Option Trader
Option Trader
Started: 02/2011
Options
Last trade: 1039 days ago

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $150.00 per month.

-
Annual Return (Compounded)
96.9%
Max Drawdown
106
Num Trades
35.8%
Win Trades
0.9 : 1
Profit Factor
8.5%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2011       +30.7%+38.0%+59.4%+13.4%(97.8%)(1022.5%)(24.6%)(3.8%)(3.6%)(3.5%)(3.4%)(191.9%)
2012(3.3%)(13.5%)(3.7%)(3.5%)(3.4%)(3.3%)(3.2%)(3.1%)(3%)(2.9%)(2.8%)(2.7%)(21.9%)
2013(2.7%)(2.6%)(2.5%)(2.5%)(2.4%)(4.7%)  -  (2.3%)(2.2%)(4.3%)(2.1%)(2%)(34.8%)
2014(2%)(1.9%)(1.9%)(1.9%)(1.8%)(1.8%)(1.8%)(1.7%)(1.7%)(1.7%)(1.7%)  -  (21.8%)

Model Account Details

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 120 hours.

Closed Trades

CSV
Show More detailsShow fewer details
Opened ETB/S#Symbol PriceClosedPriceDDP/L
6/16/11 10:59 BUY 4 VIX1117H24 VIX Aug17'11 24 call 2.35 2/15/12 20:07 0.00 137.03%
Trade id #62556642
Max drawdown($940)
Time2/15/12 20:07
Quant open0
Worst price0.00
Drawdown as % of equity-137.03%
($944)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $3.80
6/2/11 12:49 BUY 33 VIX1120G35 VIX Jul20'11 35 call 0.38 2/15/12 20:06 0.00 182.22%
Trade id #62014584
Max drawdown($1,250)
Time2/15/12 20:06
Quant open0
Worst price0.00
Drawdown as % of equity-182.22%
($1,281)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $31.35
6/8/11 9:58 BUY 11 BVZ1120G20 BVZ Jul20'11 20 call 1.90 2/15/12 20:06 1.73 28.72%
Trade id #62229095
Max drawdown($197)
Time2/15/12 20:06
Quant open4
Worst price1.14
Drawdown as % of equity-28.72%
($218)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $20.90
6/27/11 10:25 SELL 30 SLV1122S29 SLV Jul22'11 29 put 0.20 7/17 9:03 0.00 1.48%
Trade id #62908398
Max drawdown($150)
Time6/27/11 13:31
Quant open-30
Worst price0.25
Drawdown as % of equity-1.48%
$572
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $28.50
6/2/11 9:46 BUY 85 SLV1122S32 SLV Jul22'11 32 put 0.89 7/17 9:01 0.00 487.8%
Trade id #62001562
Max drawdown($7,595)
Time7/17/11 9:01
Quant open0
Worst price0.00
Drawdown as % of equity-487.80%
($7,676)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $80.75
6/23/11 12:22 BUY 10 SLV1108G36 SLV Jul8'11 36 call 0.23 7/2 9:00 0.00 4.52%
Trade id #62810596
Max drawdown($230)
Time7/2/11 9:00
Quant open0
Worst price0.00
Drawdown as % of equity-4.52%
($240)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $9.50
6/27/11 10:30 BUY 17 SLV1108G34 SLV Jul8'11 34 call 0.33 7/2 9:00 0.00 11.02%
Trade id #62908805
Max drawdown($561)
Time7/2/11 9:00
Quant open0
Worst price0.00
Drawdown as % of equity-11.02%
($577)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $16.15
6/16/11 10:13 BUY 40 SLV1124F37 SLV Jun24'11 37 call 0.19 6/25 9:00 0.00 7.03%
Trade id #62553702
Max drawdown($759)
Time6/25/11 9:00
Quant open0
Worst price0.00
Drawdown as % of equity-7.03%
($797)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $38.00
6/20/11 9:48 BUY 15 SLV1124R34 SLV Jun24'11 34 put 0.31 6/24 12:35 0.12 6.03%
Trade id #62663682
Max drawdown($405)
Time6/22/11 13:50
Quant open15
Worst price0.04
Drawdown as % of equity-6.03%
($314)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $28.50
6/20/11 9:45 SELL 55 SLV1116S30 SLV Jul16'11 30 put 0.23 6/23 12:20 0.23 3.02%
Trade id #62663236
Max drawdown($220)
Time6/23/11 10:53
Quant open-55
Worst price0.27
Drawdown as % of equity-3.02%
($105)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $104.50
6/1/11 12:12 BUY 3 VIX1117H17 VIX Aug17'11 17 call 4.00 6/23 12:19 5.00 0.97%
Trade id #61957524
Max drawdown($120)
Time6/14/11 10:35
Quant open3
Worst price3.60
Drawdown as % of equity-0.97%
$294
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $5.70
6/6/11 11:50 BUY 20 SLV1124R32 SLV Jun24'11 32 put 0.16 6/19 9:06 0.00 2.94%
Trade id #62129582
Max drawdown($325)
Time6/19/11 9:06
Quant open0
Worst price0.00
Drawdown as % of equity-2.94%
($344)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $19.00
6/15/11 9:40 BUY 20 SLV1118F35 SLV Jun18'11 35 call 0.37 6/16 10:07 0.18 3.23%
Trade id #62495338
Max drawdown($400)
Time6/16/11 10:03
Quant open20
Worst price0.17
Drawdown as % of equity-3.23%
($418)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $38.00
6/15/11 15:59 SELL 20 SLV1118F36 SLV Jun18'11 36 call 0.12 6/16 10:07 0.05 0.16%
Trade id #62523035
Max drawdown($20)
Time6/15/11 21:57
Quant open20
Worst price0.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.16%
$102
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $38.00
6/14/11 9:38 BUY 15 SLV1118F34 SLV Jun18'11 34 call 0.59 6/15 9:32 0.76 0.6%
Trade id #62451066
Max drawdown($75)
Time6/14/11 9:51
Quant open15
Worst price0.54
Drawdown as % of equity-0.60%
$227
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $28.50
6/14/11 9:39 SELL 15 SLV1118F35 SLV Jun18'11 35 call 0.23 6/15 9:32 0.27 2.42%
Trade id #62451132
Max drawdown($300)
Time6/14/11 15:04
Quant open-15
Worst price0.43
Drawdown as % of equity-2.42%
($89)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $28.50
6/13/11 10:03 BUY 15 SLV1118F35 SLV Jun18'11 35 call 0.39 6/14 9:36 0.24 1.98%
Trade id #62402591
Max drawdown($270)
Time6/14/11 9:31
Quant open15
Worst price0.21
Drawdown as % of equity-1.98%
($254)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $28.50
6/1/11 12:02 BUY 48 SLV1116G38 SLV Jul16'11 38 call 1.78 6/13 15:48 0.46 52.36%
Trade id #61956911
Max drawdown($6,553)
Time6/13/11 13:12
Quant open48
Worst price0.41
Drawdown as % of equity-52.36%
($6,405)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $91.20
6/13/11 9:47 SELL 48 SLV1116G39 SLV Jul16'11 39 call 0.39 6/13 15:48 0.34 1.92%
Trade id #62401341
Max drawdown($240)
Time6/13/11 10:27
Quant open-48
Worst price0.44
Drawdown as % of equity-1.92%
$149
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $91.20
6/13/11 9:49 BUY 48 SLV1116G40 SLV Jul16'11 40 call 0.28 6/13 9:53 0.27 0.38%
Trade id #62401432
Max drawdown($48)
Time6/13/11 9:52
Quant open48
Worst price0.27
Drawdown as % of equity-0.38%
($139)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $91.20
6/6/11 10:39 BUY 25 SLV1118F40 SLV Jun18'11 40 call 0.04 6/11 9:00 0.00 0.8%
Trade id #62123865
Max drawdown($100)
Time6/11/11 9:00
Quant open0
Worst price0.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.80%
($124)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $23.75
6/6/11 9:56 SELL 35 SLV1118F38 SLV Jun18'11 38 call 0.19 6/11 9:00 0.00 8.53%
Trade id #62120175
Max drawdown($1,330)
Time6/6/11 10:03
Quant open-35
Worst price0.57
Drawdown as % of equity-8.53%
$632
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $33.25
6/2/11 15:14 BUY 4 VIX1120S17 VIX Jul20'11 17 put 0.90 6/8 9:55 0.70 0.48%
Trade id #62022243
Max drawdown($80)
Time6/3/11 9:38
Quant open4
Worst price0.70
Drawdown as % of equity-0.48%
($88)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $7.60
6/3/11 11:36 BUY 35 SLV1110R33 SLV Jun10'11 33 put 0.29 6/6 11:46 0.08 4.71%
Trade id #62058000
Max drawdown($735)
Time6/6/11 9:56
Quant open35
Worst price0.08
Drawdown as % of equity-4.71%
($802)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $66.50
6/2/11 12:26 BUY 10 SLV1110R35 SLV Jun10'11 35 put 1.05 6/6 11:46 0.35 4.71%
Trade id #62013178
Max drawdown($735)
Time6/6/11 10:32
Quant open10
Worst price0.32
Drawdown as % of equity-4.71%
($724)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $19.00
6/2/11 12:39 BUY 30 SLV1110F37 SLV Jun10'11 37 call 0.30 6/6 9:36 0.42 1.85%
Trade id #62013734
Max drawdown($310)
Time6/3/11 11:40
Quant open30
Worst price0.20
Drawdown as % of equity-1.85%
$293
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $57.00
6/1/11 12:04 BUY 20 SLV1118R36 SLV Jun18'11 36 put 0.90 6/3 9:33 1.96 n/a $2,072
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $38.00
6/1/11 12:04 BUY 25 SLV1103R36 SLV Jun3'11 36 put 0.18 6/2 9:34 0.40 n/a $496
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $47.50
6/1/11 11:13 SELL 25 SLV1103R36 SLV Jun3'11 36 put 0.16 6/1 11:37 0.17 0.09%
Trade id #61954551
Max drawdown($17)
Time6/1/11 11:37
Quant open20
Worst price0.16
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
($65)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $47.50
6/1/11 10:01 SELL 45 SLV1103F38 SLV Jun3'11 38 call 0.17 6/1 11:37 0.35 5.39%
Trade id #61949700
Max drawdown($990)
Time6/1/11 11:31
Quant open-45
Worst price0.39
Drawdown as % of equity-5.39%
($896)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $85.50

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    2/8/2011
  • Age
    47 months ago
  • What it trades
    Options
  • # Trades
    106
  • # Profitable
    38
  • % Profitable
    35.80%
  • Avg trade duration
    12.6 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    96.88%
  • drawdown period
    May 12, 2011 - Aug 05, 2011
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    0.0%
  • Avg win
    $1,357
  • Avg loss
    $810.33
  • W:L ratio
    0.94:1
  • GENERAL STATISTICS
  • Age
    1411
  • # Trades
    106
  • Avg Trade Length
    12.6
  • PROFIT
  • Profit Factor
    0.9
  • SORTINO STATISTICS
  • Sortino Ratio
    -0.545
  • CALMAR STATISTICS
  • Calmar Ratio
    -0.521
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    n/a
  • SHARPE STATISTICS
  • Sharpe Ratio
    -0.449
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    -27.0%
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    100.00%
  • PROFIT STATISTICS
  • APD
    -0.11
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Max Drawdown
    96.9%
  • POPULARITY STATISTICS
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    0
  • TOS STATISTICS
  • Trades Own System?
    0
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • BILLING STATISTICS
  • Subscription Price
    $150
  • Billing Period (days)
    30
  • Trial Days
    0
  • WIN STATISTICS
  • Avg Loss
    $810
  • Avg Win
    $1,358
  • # Winners
    38
  • # Losers
    68
  • % Winners
    35.9%
  • TIME STATISTICS
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    18190.10
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    303.17
  • OWNER STATISTICS
  • Developer
    -
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.58960
  • SD
    1.47807
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.39890
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.38291
  • df
    19.00000
  • t
    0.51497
  • p
    0.42548
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.12966
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.91715
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.14015
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.90596
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.69224
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.98542
  • Upside part of mean
    1.69104
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.10144
  • Upside SD
    1.17431
  • Downside SD
    0.85172
  • N nonnegative terms
    4.00000
  • N negative terms
    16.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    20.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.25707
  • Mean of criterion
    0.58960
  • SD of predictor
    0.20292
  • SD of criterion
    1.47807
  • Covariance
    0.08382
  • r
    0.27947
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    2.03573
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.06627
  • Mean Square Error
    2.12595
  • DF error
    18.00000
  • t(b)
    1.23491
  • p(b)
    0.36026
  • t(a)
    0.05493
  • p(a)
    0.49353
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1.42761
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    5.49906
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -2.46808
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.60061
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.28963
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.06627
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.73877
  • SD
    1.93675
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.38145
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.36616
  • df
    19.00000
  • t
    -0.49245
  • p
    0.57132
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.89946
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.14645
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.88879
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.15648
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.43379
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.73334
  • Upside part of mean
    1.24892
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.98769
  • Upside SD
    0.84174
  • Downside SD
    1.70306
  • N nonnegative terms
    4.00000
  • N negative terms
    16.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    20.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.23559
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.73877
  • SD of predictor
    0.19733
  • SD of criterion
    1.93675
  • Covariance
    0.08020
  • r
    0.20986
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    2.05977
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -1.22403
  • Mean Square Error
    3.78503
  • DF error
    18.00000
  • t(b)
    0.91063
  • p(b)
    0.39507
  • t(a)
    -0.76577
  • p(a)
    0.58881
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -2.69234
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    6.81188
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -4.58221
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.13415
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.35867
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -1.22403
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.62513
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.69737
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.27942
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.57274
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    20.00000
  • Minimum
    0.13620
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    2.16327
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.63551
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.56434
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.15000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.39252
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.20000
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.70543
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.77908
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.46752
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.57909
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    1.00000
  • Minimum
    0.96310
  • Quartile 1
    0.96310
  • Median
    0.96310
  • Quartile 3
    0.96310
  • Maximum
    0.96310
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.42192
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.51752
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.53735
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -0.74211
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.41298
  • SD
    1.48275
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.27852
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.27817
  • df
    596.00000
  • t
    0.36692
  • p
    0.35691
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.20941
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.76633
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.20970
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.76604
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.45684
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    4.22932
  • Upside part of mean
    3.82322
  • Downside part of mean
    -3.41024
  • Upside SD
    1.17395
  • Downside SD
    0.90398
  • N nonnegative terms
    80.00000
  • N negative terms
    517.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    597.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.27073
  • Mean of criterion
    0.41298
  • SD of predictor
    0.22804
  • SD of criterion
    1.48275
  • Covariance
    -0.02267
  • r
    -0.06705
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.43599
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.53101
  • Mean Square Error
    2.19233
  • DF error
    595.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.63928
  • p(b)
    0.94916
  • t(a)
    0.47149
  • p(a)
    0.31873
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.95833
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.08635
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.68089
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.74292
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.94722
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.53101
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.70988
  • SD
    1.57929
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.44949
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.44893
  • df
    596.00000
  • t
    -0.59215
  • p
    0.72301
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.93731
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.03869
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.93693
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.03908
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.54451
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.57043
  • Upside part of mean
    3.35103
  • Downside part of mean
    -4.06091
  • Upside SD
    0.88986
  • Downside SD
    1.30368
  • N nonnegative terms
    80.00000
  • N negative terms
    517.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    597.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.24461
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.70988
  • SD of predictor
    0.22848
  • SD of criterion
    1.57929
  • Covariance
    -0.01004
  • r
    -0.02781
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.19226
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.66285
  • Mean Square Error
    2.49641
  • DF error
    595.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.67872
  • p(b)
    0.75121
  • t(a)
    -0.55175
  • p(a)
    0.70934
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.74858
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.36406
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -3.02227
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.69658
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    3.69231
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.66285
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.13248
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.16240
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03149
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.07028
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    597.00000
  • Minimum
    0.26734
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    2.16327
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.96064
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.04455
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    79.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.13233
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.92527
  • Number of outliers high
    80.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.13400
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.08297
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.42309
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.03174
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.10008
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    9.00000
  • Minimum
    0.03983
  • Quartile 1
    0.04796
  • Median
    0.06753
  • Quartile 3
    0.14274
  • Maximum
    0.96616
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.04435
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.06537
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.12378
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.55965
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.09478
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.11111
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.96616
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.91200
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.59235
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    6.86026
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    5.28804
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    6.14932
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.40519
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.50338
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.52101
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.89944
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -3.09970
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.00995
  • SD
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.00000
  • df
    0.00000
  • t
    0.00000
  • p
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.00000
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -18.54720
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.00995
  • Upside SD
    0.00000
  • Downside SD
    0.00054
  • N nonnegative terms
    0.00000
  • N negative terms
    172.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    172.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.36024
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.00995
  • SD of predictor
    0.17516
  • SD of criterion
    0.00000
  • Covariance
    0.00000
  • r
    0.00000
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00000
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.00000
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00000
  • DF error
    0.00000
  • t(b)
    0.00000
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    0.00000
  • p(a)
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.00000
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.00000
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.00000
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.00995
  • SD
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -31576300000000000.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -31437600000000000.00000
  • df
    171.00000
  • t
    -22327800000000000.00000
  • p
    1.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -34769500000000000.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -28105800000000000.00000
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -18.54720
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.00995
  • Upside SD
    0.00000
  • Downside SD
    0.00054
  • N nonnegative terms
    0.00000
  • N negative terms
    172.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    172.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.34482
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.00995
  • SD of predictor
    0.17504
  • SD of criterion
    0.00000
  • Covariance
    -0.00000
  • r
    -0.00000
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.00000
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.00995
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00000
  • DF error
    170.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.00000
  • p(b)
    0.50000
  • t(a)
    -22137200000000000.00000
  • p(a)
    1.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.00995
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.00995
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    61983400000000001884581586272256.00000
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.00995
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00003
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00003
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00000
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    172.00000
  • Minimum
    1.00000
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    0.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00000
  • Quartile 1
    0.00000
  • Median
    0.00000
  • Quartile 3
    0.00000
  • Maximum
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.00000
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.00000

Strategy Description

System supports manual and auto-trading. Signals are sent out real-time between the hours of 0930 and 1600 EST (East Coast USA regular equity market hours).

Accounts trading this system must be:
1) Margin accounts
2) Options enabled
3) Able to sell covered options

The minimum recommended account size is $5,000.

Silver Alpha WILL NOT violate the "Pattern-day trader" rule, meaning this system will never execute 4 or more day trades within a consecutive 5 day period. This control exists for subscribers with accounts below $25k.

Silver Alpha strategies vary based on market conditions, but they are all limited-risk strategies that look to exploit volatility, time decay and market direction. Strategies include, but are not limited to, butterflies, long options condors, backspreads, calenders, debit and credit spreads, straddles and strangles. Due to the volatile nature of this market we do not employ any naked short strategies. Directionally, we at times be neutral, bullish or bearish depending what we feel the right market condition is. We apply hedging strategies whenever a directional stance is taken.

Research: Technical analysis, fundamental analysis, COT (Commitment of Trader) data, bullion lease rates and forward-thinking market intelligence augmented by macroeconomic and Fed policy analysis.

In addition to trading signals you will be provided with weekly commentary in the system forum and highly-responsive customer service in the form of less than 24hr response to any private messages. I usually respond within 1 to 4 hours of receiving your message.

Why focus on silver?
1) Silver has been one of the best performing commodities over the past 3, 5 and 10 years. That trend will continue for another 10 years.
2) Recent drastic changes to global monetary policy are casting a spotlight on the meaning of "fiat" vs "hard" currency. As a result an increasing number of financial players are re-awakening to the fact that gold and silver are currencies. This is evident in the massive increase in volumes in the SLV ETF, the liquidity of which now occasionally surpasses even the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
3) I have real world professional experience trading silver. By combining my options risk-management experience with a focus on silver I aim to provide my subscribers with a competitive advantage and produce out-sized returns.

Silver is known for its volatility, a well-deserved reputation. My tutelage in the "art" of trading silver has not come easy; think many years and many tears. By subscribing to this system, you are, in essence, directly benefiting (or suffering?) from my harrowing market education in return for a monthly subscription fee. As the gold/silver ratio continues its compression from 70-to-1 (2001) to the inevitable 7:1 (2012? 2015? Ask Bernanke!), I recognize that there will be increasing demand from traders and investors for a system attuned to the specifics of this white metal market.

You will not see me advertised by any brokers because my strategy is not broker-commission-friendly, it aims to provide best possible absolute returns to subscribers. Hence the name "Silver Alpha", not "Silver Broker's Dream".

Liquidity is a priority objective, behind only performance and capital preservation.

Closed trade data is delayed for 5 days in order to allow non-subscribers to see an up-to-date snapshot of performance while maintaining the integrity of subscriber privilege.

About Me:
- BSc in Economics from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Finance concentration.
- 8 years of financial services experience spanning corporate finance, investment banking, commodities and hedge funds.

I have been trading the silver market for years using the principles represented by the Silver Alpha system. I have recently become an independent money manager and decided to take advantage of the C2 platform due to no longer being contractually restricted by an employer.

NOTE: This is an options system for investors seeking outsized returns over time, not an FX system that one can over-leverage in order to opportunistically take advantage of a low drawdown. I've noticed that FX systems are incredibly popular here on C2 for this very reason, which is comical since one large drawdown would wipeout your entire account using that strategy.

Welcome to a new pattern of absolute return, and Silver Alpha.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment. For any trading system on our Web site, we assume you will invest the amount that appears as the starting amount of that system's performance chart.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Okay, gotcha.